Policymakers will be focused on the so-called core PCE data, which excludes food and energy and is expected to show a 5.1% year-over-year increase including a 0.5% jump for the month. One big data point comes Friday, when the Commerce Department releases its personal income and outlays report for January that will include the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Consumer prices are up 7.5% over the past year, well ahead of the 2% level that the Fed considers healthy for inflation.Ĭitigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said "we would take seriously," based on Bowman's speech, that such a large first move is at the very least "dependent on the upcoming domestic data." Indeed, markets have been volatile in 2022 as inflation has run rampant and pushed the Fed into a position where it is essentially being forced to tighten policy. "You can do 25, and if you want to do another one soon, you can do it, rather than add additional disruption or uncertainty." But I also think they shouldn't overdo it here," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. "I'm not so worried about whether they do 50 points out of the gate or not. Still, it hasn't made investors any less nervous about what the path ahead will look like. Central bankers have been dousing the idea of needing to go up 50 basis points at the meeting, with New York Fed President John Williams saying last week that there is "no compelling argument" for the move. That change came after traders had been pricing a move double that size at the March 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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